June 30, 2011: National research studies are telling us that marriage stability is up. Infidelity is down with fewer than 22 percent of men unfaithful. And sex decreases in the summer months. Despite the New York Times report today Married, With Infidelities and the July issue of Cosmopolitan magazine claiming that infidelity increases in the summer, there no evidence of summer infidelity as confirmed again today by Dr. Tom W. Smith, head of the largest funded survey by the National Science Foundation.
No summer infidelity
Too often we read of infidelity rates of 50 to 70 percent. With regard to the numbers, I asked Dr. Smith again today via email to confirm our earlier conversations.
Director of the General Social Survey (GSS) of the National Opinion Research Center, his office has conducted the longest running survey which meets the tests for validity and reliably in the nation.
He not only said he had never seen figures “that relate infidelity to season of the year,” but added, “There is no evidence I’ve seen to back up the 50 to 70 percent figure.”
Dr. Smith is president-elect of the World Association for Public Opinion Research.
The National Marriage Project
Here are the numbers from a recent analysis of the data from the GSS, by Bradford Wilcox, Ph.D., a sociologist, and director of the Marriage and Family Project at the University of Virginia:
22 percent of ever-married men and 14 percent of ever-married women said they had had an extramarital affair over their lifetimes.
Also infidelity overall has not increased over the last 20 years. [The most recent study even noted a slight decrease in infidelity from previous years.]
Three bright spots when it comes to marriage: “Divorce is down since the early 1980s. This is partly because people are rediscovering the virtues of lifelong commitment. “Second, marriage is getting stronger among college-educated Americans. Third, “Infidelity has come down modestly since the 1990s. Americans are more likely now to express disapproval of infidelity than they were in the 1970s.” Rita Watson: Valentine love soars, infidelity dips / Providence Journal
So why the conflicting reports?
It is a matter of looking at national surveys versus anecdotal material and limited studies, and being careful of misleading headlines.
These sorts of findings depend on how you ask the questions and who you’re asking,” said Scott Wetzler, vice chair of the Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at Montefiore Medical Center in the Bronx, N.Y. “There are no data that I know of to speak to that.” Equal Opportunity Cheating: Women and Men Cheat at Same Rate
What determines infidelity?
Even the recent widely quoted study noting that women are catching up to men in terms of cheating admitted a major flaw – what determines infidelity was not defined. Infidelity study has major flaw, researcher says – National Love and Marriage columinst
Sex decreases in the summer months
On another scientific front Professor Michael Smolensky, a chronobiologist from the University of Texas says that statistics indicate that sexual activity in human beings is much greater in autumn and actually decreases in spring and early summer.
“When we look at couples who have kept sex diaries and single males who have kept their own data, sexual activity is rather low in spring,” Smolensky says. Science of spring fever – Times Online
Infidelity Expert, Private Investigator, Dr. Phil Show
Bill Mitchell is a licensed private investigator and author. Bill Mitchell – The More You Know, adultery and cheating which has been called upon by the Dr. Phil Show.
He says that those making claims about seasonal infidelity should identify how they gleaned their data.
- Are infidelity experts or Internet researchers tipped off by cheating spouses or their victims?
- If not, then how do they collect their facts, sift through and analyze them?
- What controls were used to make such claims?
- Where is this data coming from to support it?
- Is this information credible and reliable?
- Has it been documented in such a way as to compare the other three seasons?
He adds, “Statistical analysis is a science that works.”
Mitchell tells me that “As a seasoned private investigator with more than four decades of case assignments and thousands upon thousands of phone consultation with those in the midst of a crisis and suspicion:
“I’ve listened to real victims and proven their worst fears. My evidence has been time tested in court many times. I live and breathe in the world of facts.
“Those who want to be unfaithful do so all the time, every day, every night, normally over weekends and all four seasons from sea to shining sea.”
How can YOU tell if a study is substantive or just Internet hype?
Despite experts quoted in various magazines regarding infidelity, the questions that readers must always ask are these:
- Who conducted the study?
- How many participated?
- Did it meet the tests for validity and reliability?
- What questions were asked?
- Was the study published in a medical journal?
- If so, what are the dates or the publication number?
The debate will undoubtedly continue because everyone knows someone who has cheated. To understand what constitutes a definite survey, this is how interviews are conducted by the GSS: Infidelity facts you can trust
REW/ 11:41AM
Copyright 2011 Rita Watson/ All Rights Reserved